Ghana’s financial markets are on high alert as the Bank of Ghana’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) begins its 127th meeting, with widespread expectations that the central bank may announce another reduction in interest rates.
The Committee is reviewing recent economic developments and will set the tone for the country’s monetary direction for the remainder of 2025. The meeting comes at a time when Ghana’s economy appears to be stabilising, supported by improved consumer prices, stronger growth figures and relative currency stability.
Although the cedi has recorded slight depreciation in recent weeks largely due to seasonal demand for dollars ahead of the Christmas trading season, the central bank maintains that the trend does not signal a reversal of earlier gains but a temporary market adjustment.
Inflation continues to drop, hitting 8% in October, below the government’s year-end target of 11.9%. The decline has been boosted by tight monetary policy, improved food supply and stronger fiscal discipline.
Economic growth has also strengthened, with real GDP rising to 6.3% in the second quarter of 2025, compared to 5.1% in the same period last year. Non-oil GDP showed even stronger performance at 7.8%, driven by growth in services, construction and agriculture.
These positive indicators have fueled expectations of another policy rate reduction. The MPC has already cut the benchmark rate twice this year, dropping it first from 28% to 25% in July, and then to 21.5% in September. Governor Dr. Johnson Asiama said the cuts are meant to stimulate lending and support businesses, although he noted that risks such as potential utility tariff hikes and currency volatility must still be monitored.
With the real policy rate still significantly above inflation, economists argue that there is room for further easing. Forecasts from several analysts project a potential reduction of between 100 and 250 basis points, depending on fiscal discipline and external market conditions.
However, the current seasonal pressure on the cedi could influence how aggressively the central bank moves, as the MPC must balance growth support with currency protection.
