Climate scientists have determined that the recent deadly heatwave that struck West Africa and the Sahel region was “impossible” without the influence of human-induced climate change.
The BBC reported that the heatwave, which saw temperatures soar above 48°C in Mali last month, resulted in the deaths of hundreds of people, with one hospital in the capital Bamako linking over 100 fatalities to the extreme heat.
Researchers from the World Weather Attribution group analyzed the weather data and concluded that climate change had increased temperatures by up to 1.4°C above normal levels across the region during the five-day heatwave.
“For some, a heatwave being 1.4 or 1.5C hotter because of climate change might not sound like a big increase,” said Kiswendsida Guigma, a climate scientist at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre in Burkina Faso. “But this additional heat would have been the difference between life and death for many people.”
The scientists warned that such intense heatwaves are likely to become more common as the planet continues to warm. They estimate that events of this magnitude would occur once every 200 years at the current global temperature increase of 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels, but could happen every 20 years if temperatures breach the 2°C threshold.
In contrast, the severe drought that has gripped Southern Africa in recent months appears to have been driven primarily by the El Niño weather phenomenon, rather than climate change.
Researchers investigating the drought, which has led to crop failures and water shortages across the region, found that while global warming would increase the frequency of such droughts, the current episode was more directly linked to the El Niño event that peaked in December 2023.
“The southern Africa drought appears to be a rarer example of an event fuelled primarily by El Niño,” said Joyce Kimutai, a researcher at Imperial College London.
The stark contrast between the two extreme weather events highlights the complex and varying ways in which climate change and natural climate variability can interact to impact different regions of the world.
Scientists warn that as the earth warms further, heatwaves and droughts will likely get stronger and occur more frequently, endangering vulnerable areas even more.
In order to lessen the worst effects of the climate catastrophe, immediate action to cut greenhouse gas emissions is still necessary.